2026 Midterm Election Analysis

Key U.S. House Races

The most competitive House seats in the country, including the closest races in our four states.

Key U.S. Senate Races

Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats’ 47, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority, since Vice President Vance breaks ties at 50-50. The Cook Political Report on October 6 put a Democratic majority “squarely” in reach and projects a gain of two to six seats. The likely Democratic path is to hold Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia, flip North Carolina, and win three of Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas.

The Debt Ceiling: The First Big Legislative Train of 2027

Where it stands. Once the limit begins to restrict cash flow, the Treasury Secretary can use “extraordinary measures” (accounting maneuvers that shift funds) to keep paying the government’s obligations until Congress acts. [Confirm projected X-date with Treasury, CBO or Bipartisan Policy Center]

Lame duck vs. 2027. A lame-duck increase is unlikely. That makes the debt limit a first-half-of-2027 fight for the new Congress, under whichever party controls the House.

Why clients should care. The President has to sign a debt limit increase to avoid default, which makes it one of the few true must-pass bills. Must-pass bills become legislative trains, so expect members and stakeholders to try to attach unrelated priorities (spending caps, tax provisions, permitting, health care extenders and more).

Divided government scenario. If Democrats win the House, the debt limit becomes their first major point of leverage with the White House. [Frame what each side is likely to demand]

A New Governor, A Different Governing Dynamic

The election of Byron Donalds marks the beginning of a new chapter in Florida’s Republican leadership. Donalds inherits a state shaped by eight years of Governor Ron DeSantis’ administration but brings a much different political background, governing style, and positive relationships with President Trump and the Florida Legislature. He is also the first governor since Charlie Crist to arrive with experience in the Florida Legislature. Donalds served four years in the Florida House, from 2016 to 2020, including two years alongside incoming Senate President Jim Boyd, then a fellow House member. He did not serve with incoming House Speaker Sam Garrison, who was elected in 2020 as Donalds left for Congress, but he knows the chamber Garrison now leads from the inside, and 63 sitting state representatives endorsed his campaign. His working relationships with Boyd and Garrison will do more than anything else to determine how much of his agenda becomes law. After two years of open friction between the Governor’s office and the House, that reset may be the single biggest change felt in Tallahassee. His early decisions on agency leadership, executive priorities, and the state budget will help define the direction of his administration.

The Margin Matters as Much as the Win

Donalds’ [xx]-point victory over David Jolly is best measured against 2018, the last time Florida elected a governor to an open seat. That year, DeSantis defeated Andrew Gillum by 0.4 percentage points, roughly 32,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast, when Democrats still held a voter registration edge. Republicans now lead in registration by roughly 1.5 million voters, so a Donalds margin of [xx] points shows how far the state has moved and how much political capital he brings into his first session. Three places will show whether Republican gains of the last two cycles are durable or were tied to the top of the ticket. Miami-Dade County, which voted Republican for governor in 2022 and for president in 2024 after decades as a Democratic stronghold, tests whether Hispanic voters stay with the party in a midterm with a Republican in the White House. The I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando, where suburban swing voters decide statewide races, shows which way independents broke. Duval County, where Democrat Donna Deegan won the Jacksonville mayor’s race in 2023, shows whether Democrats’ local gains translate to statewide contests.

A Strong Republican Legislature, Despite Democratic Gains

Republicans retain substantial majorities in both chambers, even as Democrats captured several competitive House districts. The Florida Legislature will now have xx Republicans and xx Democrats in the Florida Senate and xx Republicans and xx Democrats in the Florida House of Representatives. Those gains may reflect changing suburban voting patterns and a more competitive political environment, but they do not fundamentally alter the balance of power in Tallahassee. The more telling number is the two-thirds supermajority line: 80 of 120 seats in the House and 27 of 40 in the Senate. Republicans [held/lost] that threshold in [chamber], which determines whether the majority can override vetoes and move procedural measures without Democratic votes. Because joint resolutions placing amendments on the ballot require only a three-fifths vote, the majority’s ability to send measures to the 2028 ballot is unaffected either way. The more consequential question is how Republican legislative leaders exercise their continued control and navigate the priorities of a new governor.

A Cabinet Built by the Prior Administration

Donalds will govern alongside a Cabinet largely assembled by his predecessor. Attorney General James Uthmeier and Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia, both DeSantis appointees, won full terms, joined by Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson. How this group works with a new governor on clemency, the State Board of Administration, and agency oversight is an early test of whether the DeSantis-era Cabinet becomes a Donalds-era team.

Federal Results and the New Map

Florida’s congressional delegation now stands at [xx] Republicans and [xx] Democrats under the mid-decade map that reworked 21 of the state’s 28 U.S. House districts. Litigation under the Fair Districts provisions may continue, so these lines may not be final for 2028. In the U.S. Senate special election, Senator Ashley Moody [defeated] state Representative Angie Nixon by [xx] points to serve the remainder of Senator Rubio’s term through 2028, in a race fall polling showed as close.

If Democrats Take the House

A Democratic majority would move several Florida Democrats from subcommittee ranking member posts, the usual path to a gavel, into chairmanships. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the top Democrat on the Appropriations subcommittee for Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, would likely chair it, giving Florida a direct hand in base construction and VA spending. Lois Frankel, ranking member of the Appropriations subcommittee covering the State Department and foreign assistance, would likely trade places with Florida Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, who chairs it now. Kathy Castor, ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy, would be positioned to set the House agenda on utilities, the grid and energy costs. Jared Moskowitz, ranking member of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Intelligence and a member of Judiciary, and Maxwell Frost, ranking member of the Oversight Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs, would control hearings and investigations in their areas. Darren Soto, a member of Energy and Commerce, would gain a stronger voice on that committee’s health, technology and commerce work. The shift cuts the other way for Florida Republicans who now hold gavels, including Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast and Diaz-Balart. The delegation also loses Democratic seniority with the retirement of Frederica Wilson and the resignation of Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, and assignments will ultimately depend on the Democratic Caucus and its Steering and Policy Committee.

The 2027 Policy Agenda

Property tax reform will be a defining issue, with significant implications for homeowners, local governments, and businesses after the defeat of Amendment 3. Donalds has said that if Amendment 3 failed to meet the required 60% threshold (which it did), he would return to the issue through the Tax and Budget Reform Commission, which convenes in 2027, with the goal of eliminating homestead property taxes. His other stated priorities are cutting property insurance costs by 20 percent through tort reform and expanded home hardening programs for homes built before 1992, lowering housing costs by modernizing and speeding up construction permitting, continuing school choice, and expanding workforce training for young people. Boyd has pledged to defend taxpayers and scrutinize spending, reduce barriers for employers and innovators, protect parents’ rights and strengthen schools, support law enforcement, and conserve Florida’s natural lands. Garrison has framed the House agenda around a strong economy, safe streets, and quality schools, and has urged members to favor governing over political theater. The three agendas overlap on spending discipline, education, and public safety. The likely friction points are the scope of property tax relief and how local governments replace lost revenue, how far insurance reform reaches into litigation, and whether the Legislature or the commission sets the terms of the next property tax proposal.

Amendment 3 Is Not the End of Property Tax Reform

As noted above, Amendment 3 fell short of the required 60% threshold for passage, receiving [xx] percent of the vote. Floridians should expect relief to be pursued through statute, a new joint resolution, or the Tax and Budget Reform Commission, which can place its own proposals on the 2028 ballot. Local governments should not assume the issue is settled. The public safety coalition that opposed the measure, including the Florida Sheriffs Association, firefighters, and the Fraternal Order of Police, will shape whatever comes next. [Insert results for Amendment 1, Budget Stabilization Fund, and Amendment 2, agricultural tangible personal property.]

The Calendar Ahead

The Legislature holds its organization session on November 17, Governor Donalds takes office on January 5, interim committee weeks begin in December, and the 2027 regular session opens March 2. The window between now and the Governor’s budget recommendation is when agency heads, key staff roles, and board appointments are set, and early engagement in that period pays off.